NFL Playoff Odds: Best Postseason Value Bets To Make Right Now!

NFL Playoff Odds: Best Postseason Value Bets

Best Value To Win The Super Bowl: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +12000 (0.83%)
BetQL Sim Fair Odds: +2400 (4%)

I know what you are thinking here, and I get it. No shot Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl.

While that may be true -- and the model is only showing a 4% chance for it to happen -- that still means there is value in this massive 120/1 number you can find at sportsbooks right now. That implies that the Bucs have less than a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is too low. If they beat the Panthers this weekend, which they are projected to do, they can lock up the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs.

Right now, they would play the Eagles, who have looked terrible in recent weeks and very beatable. Philly has been outplayed in a majority of their games this season, even their wins. You don't think Tampa can beat them at home? It is a long shot, but they also play in the NFC. No one has looked unbeatable.

If Tampa can make a run and we are holding a +12000 ticket, that's a potentially awesome cash-out opportunity.

Best Value To Win Division: Miami Dolphins, AFC East

Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +135 (42.5%)
BetQL Sim Fair Odds: -103 (50.8%)

The game this weekend between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in South Beach will decide the AFC East, and the BetQL Sim has this one as pretty much a toss-up.

Right now, the Bills are favored by -3, so they are also favorites to win the division. However, the model thinks that the game is even, and gives the Dolphins a 50.8% chance to win. Therefore, we are getting quite a bit of value here in taking the Dolphins at +135 to win the division, an 8% difference between our sims and the line, to be exact.

After getting destroyed in Baltimore last week, no one wants to take the Dolphins to beat the Bills, who have come on strong recently. Josh Allen has had a ton of success historically against Miami, but things can always change. He was terrible last week against New England, a far weaker team.

Best Value To Make NFL Playoffs: Houston Texans

Consensus Sportsbook Odds: -120 (54.55%)
BetQL Sim Fair Odds: -146 (59.4%)

Another game this weekend that will have massive implications, the Houston Texans will visit the Indianapolis Colts to decide who is in and who is out. A lot of early money has came flying in on the Texans, as they have gone from +1.5 underdogs to now -1 favorites. The BetQL simulation seems to agree with this assessment by the market, and even thinks there is still value to go on top of the steam that has already come in.

Our simulations give the Texans a 59.4% chance to win this game and make the playoffs, which agrees with my own assessment that the Colts are a massive fraud. I've already bet Houston when they were +1.5, and I think they win this game.

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