Sports betting has long been more than just a sideshow – for many fans, it's an integral part of matchday. Smart betting requires more than just gut feeling: current form, injuries, and above all – accurate data! All of this can make a difference in our information-driven world. For this reason, we've created a column that provides you with three hot tips every week. Gut feeling plays only a minor role. We rely on a special algorithm that transforms all available numbers and data into a lucrative betting tip. We'll reveal the name of the software below.
This week I'm taking a look at Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. Check out my top 3 picks.
Two teams with passionate fan bases are facing off, and there's guaranteed to be some tension – and that's exactly what we're in for with the Raiders vs. Patriots matchup. In the preseason, the Patriots clearly had the edge, winning two of their three games, while the Raiders lost two and tied one. Our numbers, however, show something different: Las Vegas is projected to finish slightly ahead of the Patriots (23) with 23.5 points. Their win probability is also 52.9%, well above their opponents. The first half looks particularly strong: 12.5 points and a nearly 59% chance of winning point to a strong start for the Raiders. The projected handicap is equally exciting. The model rates the spread 4 stars and sees value at +2.5. So, it's no wonder 68% of the money is going on the Raiders – the Raiders handicap is the clear bet here, and BetMGM offers odds of -102 for it.
Dominance meets desperation – that's exactly what awaits us in the Broncos vs. Titans matchup. The Titans' preseason wasn't all that bad, however, and they managed to secure two wins. Denver, on the other hand, won all three of their preseason games. Nevertheless, the numbers are clear: 26.5 projected points for the Broncos compared to just 17 for the Titans. With a win probability of over 91%, the statistics speak volumes. Denver got off to a flying start in the first half: 13.5 points and an almost 88% win probability. Add to that a defense in top form – with an A rating, clearly better than Tennessee's defense (D-). Their offense and overall rating are also significantly better than their opponents. Everything points to one thing: a win for Denver is not just likely – it's virtually certain. Our software has this bet at odds of -420, but we're playing it at DraftKings at -380.
The Seahawks and the 49ers are two rivals facing off, and their recent games look promising. The Seahawks went 1-1-1, while the 49ers have celebrated two victories over the Raiders and Chargers. Our numbers suggest that both teams are tied at 24.5 projected points each, suggesting a close matchup. While the Seahawks have home-field advantage, their grades show weaknesses: offense only at C-, defense at B-. The 49ers, on the other hand, offer more balance with solid B ratings. The model clearly predicts the overall total at 49 points – 5.5 points more than the current line (43.5). Exciting: 86% of the money is on the under. This is precisely where the opportunity lies – to play against the market and bet on a high-scoring game. Those who are brave and trust our numbers can go over 43.5. FanDuel is offering -105 for the Over right now.
Promos of the Week – Get More Out Of Your Bet
With the tips just presented, you have a massive advantage just through the betting odds. You can increase this advantage even further by combining your sports betting tips with a betting bonus. In addition to free bets or bet-and-get promotions, odds boosts play a major role with the bookmakers in our betting bonus comparison. Since this column revolves around the number 3, we now present this week's three best promotions: