NFL Player Prop Picks

NFL Player Props for Week 1 2025

Get ready to elevate your game with our staff's expert NFL player prop picks! If you are looking for NFL player props for Week 1, BetQL is your one-stop shop.

We have NFL player props for every week of the season from our team of experts. Find out who their favorite passing, receiving, rushing and anytime touchdown picks are for this upcoming week of NFL action. These NFL player prop picks are like your secret betting weapon, giving you the edge whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out.

All you have to do is sign up for a free account to see our expert's picks for this week, or you can subscribe to BetQL to get NFL prop picks from our computer model.

NFL Player Props: Passing

Here are some of our favorite NFL passing prop picks for this week.

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold 220+ passing yards (+135, DraftKings)

Darnold averaged over 250 yards a game in passing last season with the Vikings. Now taking over for Geno Smith with the Seahawks, we can expect his numbers to stay fairly similar. Seattle was a pass first team under smith, and it's fair to assume they'll stay that way with Darnold. San Francisco has a good secondary and only gave up 193 passing yards per game last season. Darnold is a bit better than even money at 210+ yards if you're looking for a less risky wager.

Raiders QB Geno Smith 228+ passing yards (-115, BetMGM)

Speaking of Smith, he also averaged over 250 yards per game last season. Now with the Raiders, I expect that Smith will continue to put up comparable numbers. The Raiders were a 3:1 pass to rush team last season and they've now got an even better QB under center. The Patriots were better at defending the pass than they were against the run last season, but they still allowed 211 through the air. Both teams will be looking to improve on horrible 2024 season, with Smith and Las Vegas having the better chances in my opinion.

NFL Player Props: Receiving

Here are some of our favorite NFL receiving prop picks for this week:

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Chase led the NFL in receiving yards last season with 1,708, nearly 200 yards more than anyone else in the league. He was QB Joe Burrow's go to target and accounted for nearly a third of all Burrow's passing yards. Chase averaged right around 100 yards and the Bengals will look to start out strong against an AFC North rival.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Kelce's production has fallen off over the last two seasons, with last year being his lowest year for touchdowns, receiving yards and yards per catch. Last season he averaged just 51 receiving yards per game and was primarily a short yardage threat. The Chargers were good at defending against the pass and the run. The Chiefs are playing at home, but with all the attention of his engagement announcement, look for Kelce to be covered and ineffective in week 1.

NFL Player Props: Rushing

Here are some of our favorite NFL rushing prop picks for this week:

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

When your running back has nearly as many rushing yards as your quarterback has passing yards, you know you've got a pretty evenly split offensive attack. Saquon led the NFL in rushing last season, and he's going up against a cowboys defence that allowed over 137 rushing yards per game last season. We've actually seen the amount of yards for this prop go down in the last few days from 96.5 to 93.5. This is definitely one to keep an eye on.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson 80+ Rushing Yards (-129, DraftKings) 

Robinson rushed for the 3rd most yards in the NFL last season, averaging 85.6 per game, however he's going up against a Buccaneers defence that only allowed 97.8 rushing yards per game last year. We didn't see Robinson in the preseason, so we have to go off what he did last year, he's got his worked cut out for him this week, but we're pretty confident at that 80 yards are possible.

NFL Player Props: Touchdowns

Here are some of our favorite anytime touchdown picks for this week:

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-185, DraftKings)

I’m not going to overthink this one. Short goal line short yardage, you give the ball to the guy that led your team in rushing last year. I don't see Bijan breaking tackles and going on a 50 yard run, his longest last year was 37, but he gets you first downs and he can get the ball across the goal line.

Chiefs TB Noah Gray Anytime TD (+400, BetMGM)

The Chiefs TEs were Patrick Mahomes' favorite targets last season and accounted for 8 of the 41 receiving touchdowns. Gray didn't have as many targets as Travis Kelce last season, bet he was able to nab 5 TDs. His average of 10.9 yards per catch makes him a threat on any down. The Chiefs are a pretty solid favorite and I think Gray has as good a chance as anyone to grab a TD.

What are NFL Player Props?

NFL player props are bets on the performance of individual players in a single game or over the course of a season. They can be on a variety of statistics, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and tackles.

NFL player props are a popular way to add excitement to your NFL betting experience. They can also be a good way to make money if you can identify players who are poised to have big games.

However, it is important to remember that NFL player props are more volatile than other types of bets, such as moneyline and point spread bets. This is because they are based on the performance of individual players, which can be difficult to predict.

Types of NFL Prop Picks

There are many different types of NFL prop picks, but they can generally be divided into three categories: player props, team props, and game props.

Player props are bets on the performance of individual players in a single game or over the course of a season. They can be on a variety of statistics, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and tackles.

Team props are bets on the performance of an entire team in a single game or over the course of a season. They can be on a variety of statistics, such as total points scored, total yards gained, and turnovers committed.

Game props are bets on events that happen during the course of a game, such as the first team to score, the longest field goal made, and whether or not there will be overtime.

Here are some examples of each type of NFL prop pick:

Player props:

• Patrick Mahomes over 255 passing yards
• Saquon Barkley over 80 rushing yards
• Tyreek Hill over 100 receiving yards
• Travis Kelce over 1 touchdown
• Aaron Rodgers under 1 interception
• Devin White over 10 tackles

Team props:

• Buccaneers over 25.5 points scored
• Bills under 350 total yards gained
• Chiefs with more turnovers than the Broncos
• Bengals win by at least 7 points
• Packers and Vikings game goes overtime

Game props:

• Buccaneers to score the first touchdown
• Longest field goal made is over 50 yards
• There will be overtime

NFL prop picks can be a fun and exciting way to bet on the NFL. They can also be a good way to make money if you can identify players and teams that are poised to have big games.

What are NFL Passing Props?

NFL passing props are bets on the performance of a quarterback in a single game or over the course of a season. They can be on a variety of statistics, such as passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions.

Some examples of NFL passing props include:

• Patrick Mahomes over 255 passing yards
• Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns
• Aaron Rodgers under 1 interception

What are NFL Rushing Props?

NFL rushing props are bets on the performance of a running back in a single game or over the course of a season. They can be on a variety of statistics, such as rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and longest rush.

Some examples of NFL rushing props include:

• Saquon Barkley over 80 rushing yards
• Dalvin Cook over 1 rushing touchdown
• Nick Chubb with a longest rush of over 30 yards

What are NFL Receiving Props?

NFL receiving props are bets on the performance of a wide receiver or tight end in a single game or over the course of a season. They can be on a variety of statistics, such as receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and longest reception.

Some examples of NFL receiving props include:

• Tyreek Hill over 100 receiving yards
• Travis Kelce over 1 receiving touchdown
• Justin Jefferson with a longest reception of over 50 yards

What is an Anytime Touchdown Prop Pick?

An anytime touchdown prop pick is a bet on a specific player to score a touchdown during any point of the game. These props are primarily focused on offensive players.

For example, you could bet on Justin Jefferson to score an anytime touchdown in the Vikings vs. Packers game. If Jefferson catches a pass in the end zone or runs the ball into the end zone, your bet wins. If Jefferson does not score a touchdown, your bet loses.

Anytime touchdown props are a popular way to bet on the NFL because they offer the potential to win big at relatively low odds. For example, you might be able to bet on Jefferson to score an anytime touchdown at +150 odds. This means that if you bet $100 and Jefferson scores a touchdown, you would win $150.

How do Anytime Touchdowns Work for Quarterbacks?

An anytime touchdown for a quarterback means that the quarterback must cross the goal line with the ball in their hands, either as a runner or a pass-catcher. It does not include passing touchdowns, where the receiver is credited with the score.

Quarterbacks who are known for their rushing ability, such as Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts, are more likely to score anytime touchdowns than quarterbacks who are primarily passers. However, even pocket passers like Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott have been known to score rushing touchdowns from time to time.

Anytime touchdown props for quarterbacks are typically offered at plus-money odds, meaning that you would win more money than you bet if your pick hits. However, it is important to note that these bets are also relatively risky, as quarterbacks are not as likely to score touchdowns as other offensive players, such as running backs and wide receivers.

Tips for Betting NFL Player Props

• Do your research. This is essential for any type of betting, but it is especially important for player props, as they are based on the individual performance of players. Look at historical data, recent trends, and the matchup to get a better understanding of what to expect from each player.
• Consider the game script. If a team is trailing early, they may be forced to throw the ball more often, which could benefit pass-catchers and quarterbacks. If a team is leading big, they may run the ball more often, which could benefit running backs.
• Be aware of injuries. If a key player is injured, it could impact the performance of other players on the team. For example, if a starting wide receiver is injured, it could mean more targets for the other receivers and tight ends.
• Shop around for the best odds. Different sportsbooks will offer different odds on the same prop bets. It is important to compare the odds at different sportsbooks before placing a bet to get the best possible value.
• Focus on a few players. Don't try to bet on every player prop that is available. Instead, focus on a few players that you have a good understanding of and that you believe have a good chance of meeting or exceeding their prop number.
• Don't be afraid to fade the public. If a lot of people are betting on a particular player prop, it could be a sign that the odds are not favorable. Consider betting on the opposite side of the public to get better value.
• Bankroll management is key. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose. Set a budget for yourself and stick to it.

Tips for Betting NFL Passing Props:

• Look for quarterbacks who are playing in high-scoring games. Quarterbacks are more likely to hit their passing props in games where a lot of points are scored.
• Consider the quarterback's offensive weapons. Quarterbacks with good receivers and tight ends are more likely to hit their passing props.
• Be aware of injuries and suspensions. If a quarterback's top receiver is out with an injury, it is less likely that the quarterback will hit their passing prop.
• Don't bet on every game. Be selective with your bets and only bet on games where you have a good understanding of the matchup and the players involved.

Tips for Betting NFL Receiving Props:

• Look for receivers who are playing in high-scoring games. Receivers are more likely to hit their receiving props in games where a lot of points are scored.
• Consider the receiver's role in the offense. Receivers who are heavily involved in their team's passing game are more likely to hit their receiving props.
• Be aware of injuries and suspensions. If a receiver's quarterback is out with an injury, it is less likely that the receiver will hit their receiving prop.
• Don't bet on every game. Be selective with your bets and only bet on games where you have a good understanding of the matchup and the players involved.

Tips for Betting NFL Rushing Props:

• Look for running backs who are playing against weak run defenses. Running backs are more likely to hit their rushing props against teams with poor run defenses.
• Consider the running back's matchup against their opposing linebacker. If a running back is matched up against a good linebacker, it is less likely that they will hit their rushing prop.
• Consider the running back's role in the offense. Running backs who are heavily involved in their team's rushing game are more likely to hit their rushing props.
• Look for running backs who are due for a breakout game. If a running back has been underperforming in recent weeks, but they have a good matchup, they may be due for a breakout game.
• Be aware of the game script. If a team is winning big, they may run the ball more often in the second half, which could limit the running back's opportunities.

Tips for Betting Anytime Touchdown Props:

• Do your research. This is the most important tip for any type of sports betting, but it is especially important for anytime touchdown props, as there are a lot of factors that can affect a player's chances of scoring a touchdown. Look at the player's recent stats, as well as the stats of their team's offense and defense. Consider the matchup and the weather conditions.
• Understand the line. Make sure you understand what the line means and how it is set. For example, if the line for a player's anytime touchdown prop is -120, it means that you would have to bet $120 to win $100. If the line is +120, it means that you would win $120 for every $100 you bet.
• Shop around for the best odds. Different sportsbooks will offer different odds on the same anytime touchdown prop. It is important to shop around and compare the odds before placing your bet.
• Look for players who are heavily involved in their team's offense. Running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are heavily involved in their team's offense are more likely to score touchdowns.
• Consider the matchup. Players are more likely to score touchdowns against weaker defenses.
• Look for players who have a history of scoring touchdowns. Some players are simply more natural scorers than others.

Tips for Betting Longest Reception / Rush Props:

• Look for players who are known for big plays. Some players are simply more likely to make big plays than others. For example, DeAndre Hopkins is known for making big plays downfield, and Derrick Henry is known for breaking off long runs.
• Consider the team's game plan. If a team is known for throwing the ball deep or running the ball a lot, that will increase the chances of a long reception or rush.
• Bet on multiple players. If you are unsure which player will have the longest reception or rush, you can bet on multiple players to increase your chances of winning.

Strategies for Betting NFL Player Props:

• Focus on props with high odds. The higher the odds, the more potential profit there is to be made. However, it is important to remember that high odds also mean that the prop is more difficult to predict.
• Look for props with value. Value is when the odds are better than the actual probability of the outcome happening. For example, if a prop bet is offering odds of +200 on a player to score a touchdown, but the actual probability of that player scoring a touchdown is 30%, then that prop bet has value.
• Target props that are correlated. Correlated props are props that are likely to happen together. For example, if a team is favored to win a game, then their quarterback is also likely to have a good game. Therefore, betting on a prop bet for the quarterback to throw over 250 yards would be a correlated bet.

NFL Player Prop Predictions

At BetQL, we offer two types of NFL player prop predicions

Expert picks: Our team of expert sports bettors provides hand-picked player prop picks for their favorite NFL games each week. These picks are based on the experts' deep knowledge of the NFL and their analysis of the latest data and trends.

Model projections: Our proprietary NFL player prop model generates projections for every player prop available at major sportsbooks. With a BetQL subscription you can see our model's player prop prediction, our star rating for each bet type, and which sportsbook has the best line.

If you are looking for the best possible NFL player prop picks, we recommend subscribing to BetQL. Our subscribers have access to both our expert picks and our model projections. This gives them the best possible chance of winning their player prop bets.

What Should You Look for in a Sportsbook when Betting NFL Props?

1. Reputation and Trustworthiness: Look for sportsbooks with a solid reputation for fairness, transparency, and timely payouts. You can research reviews and check for licenses and certifications.
2. Variety of Props: Find sportsbooks that offer a wide range of NFL prop bets, including player props, team props, and game props. The more options, the better.
3. Competitive Odds: Compare the odds offered by different sportsbooks. Even a small difference in odds can have a significant impact on your potential winnings.
4. User-Friendly Interface: A user-friendly website or mobile app can enhance your betting experience. Look for platforms that are easy to navigate and place bets on.
5. Bonuses and Promotions: Some sportsbooks offer attractive bonuses and promotions for NFL betting. These can include deposit bonuses, free bets, or cashback offers. Be sure to read the terms and conditions.

Who has the best NFL Prop Picks?

Obviously it is BetQL! BetQL offers the best NFL prop picks because we have a team of experts who are dedicated to providing our users with the most accurate and informed picks possible. Our experts have years of experience in the NFL and they use a variety of factors to make their picks, including historical data, recent trends, and the matchup.

In addition to our team of experts, we also offer NFL prop picks from our computer model, which analyzes a massive dataset of historical data and simulations to predict the outcome of every game and player performance. Our computer model is one of the most advanced in the industry and it has a proven track record of success.

When you combine our team of experts with our computer model, you get the most comprehensive and accurate NFL prop picks available. That's why BetQL is the best place to go for all of your NFL prop betting needs.

Prop Bet Frequently Asked Questions

When do NFL Props Come Out?

NFL props typically come out 48-72 hours before the start of a game. However, the exact time that they are released can vary depending on the sportsbook. For example, some sportsbooks may release their props on Tuesday for the upcoming Sunday games, while others may wait until Wednesday or Thursday.

It is also important to note that not all props are released at the same time. For example, player props may be released earlier than team props. Additionally, some sportsbooks may release props for certain games earlier than others.

Can you Parlay NFL Player Props?

Yes, you can parlay NFL player props. A parlay is a bet on two or more outcomes. In order to win a parlay, all of the outcomes must be correct.

To parlay NFL player props, simply select the props that you want to include in your parlay and enter the amount of money that you want to bet. The odds for the parlay will be calculated by multiplying the odds for each individual prop.

For example, if you parlay a player to throw over 250 yards (+200) with a player to score a touchdown (+150), the odds for the parlay would be +300. This means that if you bet $100 on the parlay and it wins, you would win $300.

What is a Same Game Parlay?

A same game parlay is a parlay bet on multiple events from the same game. For example, you could place a same game parlay on the moneyline, over/under, and a player prop from the same NFL game.

Same game parlays are becoming increasingly popular among sports bettors, as they offer the potential to win big payouts on a single bet. However, it is important to note that same game parlays are also very risky, as all of the legs of the parlay must win in order for the bet to be successful.

Can you Live Bet Player Props?

Yes, you can live bet player props. Live betting is betting on a game while it is in progress. This allows bettors to react to the game as it unfolds and place bets based on what they are seeing.

To live bet player props, simply go to your favorite sportsbook and look for the live betting section. From there, you can browse the available props and place bets on the ones that you like.

What is an Alt Line?

An alt line in terms of NFL props is an alternate line to the standard line offered by a sportsbook. For example, the standard line for a player prop for passing yards might be 250.5 over/under. An alt line for this prop might be 275.5 over/under.

Alt lines are offered by sportsbooks to give bettors more options and to adjust the odds based on the demand for a particular prop. If a lot of bettors are betting on a player to go over 250.5 passing yards, the sportsbook may offer an alt line of 275.5 over/under to get some more action on the under.

Alt lines can be a good way for bettors to find value. If you think a player is going to go over their standard line, you can bet on the alt line to get better odds. However, it is important to be aware of the risks involved in betting on alt lines. The odds are adjusted for a reason, and the sportsbook is not going to offer an alt line that they think is going to lose them money

How does Bankroll Management Work?

Bankroll management with props is the process of managing your bankroll to ensure that you can continue to bet on props over the long term. This is important because props can be very risky, and it is easy to lose money quickly if you are not careful.

Let's say you have a bankroll of $1000 and you decide to bet on NFL player props. You decide to bet 2% of your bankroll on each bet. This means that you would bet $20 on each bet.

Can Betting on Player Props be Profitable?

Yes, betting on NFL player props can be profitable, but it is important to be realistic and understand the risks involved. There is no guaranteed way to win when betting on player props, but following our tips above will increase your chances of profitability

Need More Prop Picks:

• NFL Props from our Model: Check out the player prop picks from our model, you will need a BetQL subscription to see these picks, but you can check out our stat projections, star ratings, and the best odds for each prop bet
• MLB Prop Bets: Check out the baseball prop picks from our team of experts. You can find the best hitting props like home run bets, RBIs, and total bases. We also have pitching prop picks and base running props so you have have a winning night.
• NBA Player Prop Picks: Find the best player prop picks from our team of experts and start cashing more bets. You can find the best points, rebounds, three pointer, and assist bets for the top players on tonight's slate.