NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

Another week of NFL games is here, and that means it's time to cash some NFL bets! This week's Thursday Night Football clashes feature some of the NFL most storied rivalries, and we've got the inside scoop on where to place your bets.

Our expert team at BetQL has dissected the stats, analyzed player form and scrutinized past performances, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you the most informed NFL picks for this prime-time battle.

Our NFL picks are the result of a thorough process that combines data-driven analysis with a deep understanding of the game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our NFL picks are tailored to give you the upper hand.

So, join us as we break down the key players, strategies and potential game-changers in this electrifying contest. Below, you’ll see a betting breakdown with expert NFL picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, including sleeper picks and epic sportsbook promotions to cash in on!

As always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

TNF: Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

We have some trending betting tips for the exciting upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, December 11, 2025. This clash will take place at the iconic Raymond James Stadium and is anticipated to be a battle to remember.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by coach Todd Bowles, have had a commendable season so far. As they approach the final stages of the season, they stand tall with a record reflecting 7 wins and 6 losses. They're currently in 1st place in the NFC South, having scored a total of 299 points while allowing for 325.

In their last five games, the Buccaneers have faced ups and downs:

• Lost to the New Orleans Saints (20-24)
• Defeated the Arizona Cardinals (20-17)
• Thrashed by the Los Angeles Rams (7-34)
• Narrowly lost to the Buffalo Bills (32-44)
• Lost to the New England Patriots (23-28)

QB Baker Mayfield is far from as lights out this season as he was last year, however his leadership presence and big game experience help make the Bucs a potential Super Bowl contender.

Atlanta Falcons Overview

On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons, under the guidance of coach Raheem Morris, have had a challenging season. Currently, they sit in 3rd place in the NFC South with a record of 4 wins and 9 losses, having accumulated a total of 252 points against 313.

The Falcons have also experienced their share of thrills and heartbreaks in recent matches:

• Suffered a loss against the Seattle Seahawks (9-37)
• Narrowly lost to the New York Jets (24-27)
• Claimed victory against the New Orleans Saints (24-10)
• Lost to the Carolina Panthers (27-30)
• Lost to the Indianapolis Colts (25-31)

Injuries on both sides of the ball, most recently the loss of QB Micheal Penix Jr. have caused the Falcons to struggle this season. Veteran QB Kirk Cousins will now lead the team through the end of the season.

Head-to-Head Statistics

When looking back at their past encounters, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have generally had the upper hand over the Falcons. In their latest games, they recently dominated the Falcons in consecutive matchups, outscoring them in crucial moments. Here is a quick look at their last encounters:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24) vs. Atlanta Falcons (20)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30) vs. Atlanta Falcons (17)

Predictions for the Game

1. NFL Moneyline Prediction: Our NFL prediction is a home win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with odds of -227 from Fanatics Sportsbook. This shows strong confidence in their ability to secure victory on their home turf.
2. NFL Spread Prediction: The best NFL point spread is in favor of the Atlanta Falcons at +5.5 points with a betting line of -110 from Fanatics Sportsbook, indicating that they may keep the game closer than expected.
3. NFL Points Total Betting Market: For those looking to wager on total points, the betting line sits under 45.0 points at odds of -125 from FanDuel Sportsbook, suggesting a potentially defensive showdown plagued by scoring challenges.

Summary

As we approach this thrilling game, predictions lean towards the Buccaneers emerging victorious at home. With their strong standing and recent performances, they look to capitalize on their advantages. Meanwhile, the Falcons will aim to defy the odds and prove their mettle. Get ready for what promises to be an electrifying encounter!

Kirk Cousins Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-107, DraftKings)

Cousins has had a roller coaster first three games with the Falcons this season, but we think he'll have a much better game against the Buccaneers than he did against the Seahawks. Look for him to come out guns blazing on Thursday.

Darnell Mooney Over 2.5 Receptions (-129 DraftKings)

With Drake London questionable, look for Mooney to see more targets this week. We like his chemistry with Cousins and think he easily gets 3+ catches this week.

Rachaad White Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

White doesn't need to be a big factor in the Bucs offense with Mayfield throwing the ball all over the field, but he's averaging about 4 yards per carry, which means 5 carries in this game should have this one done easily. Add to that the fact that the Falcons give up over 130 yards a game on the ground.

Best Sportsbook Promotions

Check out our plays for today's best sportsbook promotions, including odds boosts and more!

2025 Thursday Night Football Schedule

The 2025 NFL schedule is out which means that we have the complete Thursday Night Football schedule. Let’s take a look at the full exciting schedule below:

How To Bet Thursday Night Football

Research the teams: Before placing any Thursday Night Football bets, it's important to gather information about the teams playing. Consider their recent performance, key players, injuries, head-to-head records, and any other relevant factors that may impact the game.

Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with how NFL betting odds work. Odds indicate the probability of a specific outcome, and they also determine the potential payout. Learn about different types of bets, such as point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, and consider which type of bet aligns with your betting strategy.

Set a budget: It's crucial to establish a budget for your Thursday Night Football betting activities and stick to it. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets. Responsible bankroll management is key to maintaining a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience.

Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different Thursday Night Football odds for the same game. Take the time to compare odds from multiple bookmakers to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your overall profitability in the long run.

Consider additional factors: While statistics and trends are important, also consider other factors that may influence the outcome of a Thursday Night Football game. These factors could include weather conditions, home-field advantage, coaching strategies, and team motivation.

Practice self-control: Emotions can often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive or irrational betting decisions. Try to approach sports betting with a calm and logical mindset. Avoid betting on your favorite Thursday Night Football team solely based on loyalty, as it can bias your judgment.

Remember, Thursday Night Football betting involves an element of risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. It's essential to gamble responsibly, be mindful of your betting habits, and enjoy the game within your means.

Be sure to consult BetQL’s NFL Model before placing any Thursday Night Football bets. Also see live public betting, sharp betting and line movement data, player prop projections, trending bets and more!

Thursday Night Football Betting Strategy

When it comes to betting on Thursday night NFL games, here are some strategies you can consider:

Research the teams: Analyze the teams' recent performance, including their records, statistics, and key player injuries. Look at their offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as their past performance in prime-time games.

Consider short weeks: Thursday night games usually occur after a shorter week of preparation, which can impact team performance. Take into account how teams have historically fared in these situations, as some may struggle to perform at their usual level due to less rest and recovery time.

Home-field advantage: Assess the impact of home-field advantage on the teams playing. Some teams tend to perform better at home, so consider this factor when making your predictions.

Weather conditions: Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the game. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, can significantly affect the outcome and scoring potential. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Line movements and public betting: Pay attention to line movements and public betting trends. These can provide valuable insights into how the majority of bettors are leaning and whether there might be value in taking the contrarian approach.

Prop bets and alternative markets: Look beyond the traditional spread and over/under bets. Prop bets, player performance bets, and alternative markets can offer interesting opportunities, especially if you have in-depth knowledge about specific players or matchups.

Manage your bankroll: Set a budget for your wagers and avoid chasing losses. It's important to bet responsibly and not wager more than you can afford to lose. Develop a staking plan and stick to it, adjusting your bet sizes based on your confidence in each pick.

Remember, betting on sports is inherently risky, and there are no guaranteed strategies for success. These tips are meant to provide a framework for making informed decisions, but ultimately, outcomes can be unpredictable. Exercise caution and always gamble responsibly.