NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

Another week of NFL games is here, and that means it's time to cash some NFL bets! This week's Thursday Night Football clash features the Commanders at the Packers in what should be an interesting NFC clash, and we've got the inside scoop on where to place your bets.

Our expert team at BetQL has dissected the stats, analyzed player form and scrutinized past performances, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you the most informed NFL picks for this prime-time battle.

Our NFL picks are the result of a thorough process that combines data-driven analysis with a deep understanding of the game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our NFL picks are tailored to give you the upper hand.

So, join us as we break down the key players, strategies and potential game-changers in this electrifying contest. Below, you’ll see a betting breakdown with expert NFL picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, including sleeper picks and epic sportsbook promotions to cash in on!

As always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

TNF: Commanders at Packers Picks & Best Bets

Packers ML (-200, BetMGM)

I'm seeing pundits already call this "The Year of the Pack". Time will tell, but they did look very impressive against a Lions team that was able to dominate the NFC North last year. Green Bay was able to jump out of the gate fast against Detroit with 10 unanswered points in the first quarter, and go into halftime up 17-3. QB Jordan Love looked good, going 16/22 with 188 passing yards and 2 TDs. Green Bay's defense also deserves a lot of love as they were able to hold the Lions at bay and grab a pivotal INT.

As for the Commanders, they were able to spread the ball around well, and evenly with almost a 50/50 split in receiving and rushing as they marched on the Giants for 432 total yards. Did Russel Wilson have a good game? No, going 17/37 for 168 yards and 0 TDs is probably not how he wanted his first game as a Giant to go. He also probably didn't think at 36 years old, he'd have also led his team in rushing with 44 yards. Now the first real test of the season will come for the Commanders as they have to go to Lambeau Field where the Packers were 6-4 last season.

The BetQL computer model has the Packers winning in 74% of its simulations scoring an average of 26.5 points against the Commanders 20.5.

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing TD (-118, DraftKings)

The NFC North is known for their defense, which played a big role in Jordan Love's stat line last week against the Lions. Despite only passing for 188 yards, Love was able to complete 16 of 22 passes and throw 2 TDs. It's hard to accurately gauge the Commanders defense as they played against the Giants, who just aren't good. With both teams being "pass first" offenses, I wouldn't be surprised to see Love's passing attempts approaching 30 on Thursday, plenty of opportunities for him to make this prediction a reality.

Josh Jacobs 80+ Rushing Yards (+102 DraftKings)

Jacobs averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season, again playing in the division known for defence. He averaged 3.5 YPC against the Lions last week. If he can get back to right around 4 YPC or better he should be good as he'll continue to get around 20 attempts per game.

Micah Parsons & Rashan Gary to Combine for 2+ Sacks (+115 DraftKings)

I like this one a lot. DraftKings is calling it the Lambeau Lockdown Special. Rashan Gary already has 1.5 sacks after playing the Lions. and Micah Parsons is listed as questionable for the game. The Giants were able to sack Jayden Daniels 3 times last week, I think the Packs leading pass rushers could do that or better on Thursday.

Jayden Daniels Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

The Packers front line are going to try to put pressure on Daniels all night. He's going to scramble, like he does, he's going to find a gap, like he does, and he's going to run like he does. Is he going to score a rushing touchdown, probably not, but can he scramble for 44 yards, yes. Especially if he takes off as much as he did against the Giants last week.

Deebo Samuel Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Samuel was Jayden Daniels' favorite target last week and he led the Commanders with 7 catches for 77 yards. Deebo averaged 11 YPC against the Giants, but I'd expect that number to come down this week against a superior defence. That being said 8 YPC on 7 catches puts him well above his current line, and breaking for a long run isn't out of the question for him.

Best Sportsbook Promotions

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2025 Thursday Night Football Schedule

The 2025 NFL schedule is out which means that we have the complete Thursday Night Football schedule. Let’s take a look at the full exciting schedule below:

How To Bet Thursday Night Football

Research the teams: Before placing any Thursday Night Football bets, it's important to gather information about the teams playing. Consider their recent performance, key players, injuries, head-to-head records, and any other relevant factors that may impact the game.

Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with how NFL betting odds work. Odds indicate the probability of a specific outcome, and they also determine the potential payout. Learn about different types of bets, such as point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, and consider which type of bet aligns with your betting strategy.

Set a budget: It's crucial to establish a budget for your Thursday Night Football betting activities and stick to it. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets. Responsible bankroll management is key to maintaining a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience.

Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different Thursday Night Football odds for the same game. Take the time to compare odds from multiple bookmakers to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your overall profitability in the long run.

Consider additional factors: While statistics and trends are important, also consider other factors that may influence the outcome of a Thursday Night Football game. These factors could include weather conditions, home-field advantage, coaching strategies, and team motivation.

Practice self-control: Emotions can often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive or irrational betting decisions. Try to approach sports betting with a calm and logical mindset. Avoid betting on your favorite Thursday Night Football team solely based on loyalty, as it can bias your judgment.

Remember, Thursday Night Football betting involves an element of risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. It's essential to gamble responsibly, be mindful of your betting habits, and enjoy the game within your means.

Be sure to consult BetQL’s NFL Model before placing any Thursday Night Football bets. Also see live public betting, sharp betting and line movement data, player prop projections, trending bets and more!

Thursday Night Football Betting Strategy

When it comes to betting on Thursday night NFL games, here are some strategies you can consider:

Research the teams: Analyze the teams' recent performance, including their records, statistics, and key player injuries. Look at their offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as their past performance in prime-time games.

Consider short weeks: Thursday night games usually occur after a shorter week of preparation, which can impact team performance. Take into account how teams have historically fared in these situations, as some may struggle to perform at their usual level due to less rest and recovery time.

Home-field advantage: Assess the impact of home-field advantage on the teams playing. Some teams tend to perform better at home, so consider this factor when making your predictions.

Weather conditions: Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the game. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, can significantly affect the outcome and scoring potential. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Line movements and public betting: Pay attention to line movements and public betting trends. These can provide valuable insights into how the majority of bettors are leaning and whether there might be value in taking the contrarian approach.

Prop bets and alternative markets: Look beyond the traditional spread and over/under bets. Prop bets, player performance bets, and alternative markets can offer interesting opportunities, especially if you have in-depth knowledge about specific players or matchups.

Manage your bankroll: Set a budget for your wagers and avoid chasing losses. It's important to bet responsibly and not wager more than you can afford to lose. Develop a staking plan and stick to it, adjusting your bet sizes based on your confidence in each pick.

Remember, betting on sports is inherently risky, and there are no guaranteed strategies for success. These tips are meant to provide a framework for making informed decisions, but ultimately, outcomes can be unpredictable. Exercise caution and always gamble responsibly.